After Andy Burnham expressed his intention to enter the Gorton and Denton by-election, Keir Starmer found himself in a challenging position with limited favorable choices.
Allowing Burnham to participate in the election posed the risk of fueling speculation about a potential leadership challenge and removing a barrier for him to pursue such aspirations, as only Members of Parliament are eligible to run for the leadership role.
Moreover, the prospect of engaging in an unforeseen mayoral by-election in Greater Manchester amidst the already challenging upcoming elections in Scotland, Wales, and English councils in May added to the dilemma. Poor election outcomes in these contests could pose a significant threat to Starmer, with figures like Burnham closely monitoring the situation.
On the other hand, the alternative approach, which the Prime Minister adopted, involved preventing Burnham from running by citing the financial burden on taxpayers for organizing a mayoral race and diverting party resources from the May elections. While this move averted an immediate crisis, its long-term repercussions could be severe.
Following the announcement, numerous Members of Parliament expressed their strong disapproval, accusing Labour’s governing body of orchestrating a scheme. Burnham runs the risk of becoming a symbol of discontent among backbenchers who view the decision as excessive control from Downing Street.
The Parliamentary party has already demonstrated a propensity for rebellion by pressuring the Government into several policy reversals, and further inciting them could complicate Starmer’s responsibilities.
A government minister, speaking privately before the decision, suggested that allowing Burnham to run would have been a stronger course of action, implying that Starmer could appear weakened by blocking him.
The PM’s camp has been actively undermining Wes Streeting, a potential leadership contender, and has now prohibited Burnham from returning to Westminster. Opinions on whether these actions reflect strength or vulnerability vary, though the prevailing sentiment leans towards the latter.
Supporters of the Prime Minister argue that the decision regarding Burnham should quell internal disputes that the public finds tiresome. However, realistically, this resolution may not put an end to the internal strife. Until Starmer manages to enhance Labour’s dwindling poll ratings, speculation about his future is likely to persist.
While Burnham has his critics, some argue that his personal ambitions may be prioritized over the interests of the constituents of Greater Manchester who elected him less than two years ago. It is also noteworthy that Burnham previously competed for the Labour leadership twice, losing to Ed Miliband and later to Jeremy Corbyn.
Despite these criticisms, Burnham remains a popular figure in politics and has bolstered his standing beyond Westminster, earning the moniker “King of the North” during the pandemic.
Although Labour secured a comfortable victory in Gorton in 2024, the party faces a challenging task in retaining the seat, especially with Reform exerting maximum effort to cause an upset and the Greens attracting left-leaning voters. Burnham has cautioned about the potential repercussions of blocking him on the election outcome.
If Labour were to lose the upcoming by-election, it could lead to serious consequences.