Canadian exports to China surged by 30% in the first half of 2026, as analyzed by researchers using Statistics Canada data. The overall trade between the two countries saw a 3.6% increase year over year. The boost in trade is attributed to the ongoing efforts to strengthen economic ties between Canada and China amidst strained relations with the U.S.
During the first half of 2026, the total trade value in goods between Canada and China reached $66.6 billion, marking a 3.6% rise. Notably, exports saw a significant increase of 30% to $21.74 billion year over year. The trade was dominated by energy and minerals, accounting for 58.4% of all exports to China during this period. The energy sector, particularly crude oil and liquefied propane, experienced a substantial 81.8% growth, while exports of metal ores and non-metallic minerals, including copper ore, rose by 29%.
The surge in exports is seen as a record achievement for Canada in the first half of the year. The recent trade escalation between Canada and the U.S. has prompted Canada to explore new trade opportunities with other countries, emphasizing the need to diversify its trading partners. Prime Minister Mark Carney highlighted the importance of adapting to changing trade dynamics and reducing reliance on any single market.
Additionally, the Trans Mountain Pipeline operating at 97% capacity in June facilitated increased access to Western Canadian crude oil for Asian markets. The disruption in oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz due to the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran also played a role in boosting oil exports, with customers turning to Canada to fill the gap.
The trade truce between Canada and China saw a significant shift in bilateral relations in the first half of 2026. Agreements between Canada and China, such as allowing Chinese electric vehicles into the Canadian market in exchange for tariff concessions on Canadian agricultural products, have positively impacted trade. The deal has led to a rebound in prices for Canadian agricultural products like canola seed, benefiting Canadian farmers.
While imports from China decreased by 5.8% year over year, the trade deficit narrowed by 25%. The decline in imports is partly attributed to the relocation of certain manufacturing activities to countries like Vietnam. Despite the overall positive trade trends, the report authors noted that agricultural performance showed only modest growth, with fluctuations in specific commodities like lobster.
Looking ahead, there is optimism for further growth in trade with China and the Asia-Pacific region. The goal of increasing exports to China by 50% by 2030 set by the Canadian government seems achievable based on the strong performance in the first half of 2026. The potential for surpassing this target is also being considered, reflecting the promising trajectory of Canada-China trade relations.