Russia perceives itself to be in a state of conflict with NATO allies, although not in a direct military confrontation. This perception allows the Kremlin to allocate resources for probing attacks on NATO defenses, identifying weaknesses, and determining boundaries.
Incidents attributed to Russia in Europe against NATO countries include sabotaging Polish railways, disrupting Baltic Sea undersea cables, and engaging in aggressive actions to disrupt NATO’s support for Ukraine. These actions aim to increase costs for NATO, disrupt supply chains temporarily, and sow discord in Western countries.
Despite these provocations, Russia has not crossed a threshold that would trigger a military response from NATO. By using third-party proxies, often recruited through social media, Russia maintains a level of deniability and flexibility, making it challenging to attribute the attacks directly to the Kremlin.
While the sabotage attacks across Europe lack coordinated precision, countries like Germany, France, and Poland, providing substantial military aid to Ukraine, have faced more physical attacks compared to the UK. However, Russia’s interest in the UK is evident through intelligence gathering efforts, including recent incidents like the presence of the Yantar surveillance vessel in British waters.
Russia’s intelligence networks in Europe suffered setbacks in 2022 when around 400 diplomats linked to the GRU were expelled by European nations. As Russia works to rebuild its networks, reliance on local proxies poses risks and limits coordination effectiveness in attacks. Nevertheless, Russia’s adaptability and learning curve pose a continued risk to non-military targets in Europe and the UK.